03 / RESEARCH
Independent research
Building data, analytics, and AI systems is the means. Understanding and navigating the powerful currents of financial markets is the end.
Independent research — market regimes, BTC ecosystem, the monetary path of the AI supercycle · CFA
I consider navigating markets a direct expression of decision-making: forming a hypothesis, testing it, and acting when the evidence warrants it. We cannot predict the future, but we can define a range of possible outcomes and express a view on their probabilities.
My research grounds that process. It helps me test assumptions, recognise uncertainty, and refine decisions across changing conditions and different time horizons. It is also where my fascination with statistics, data, and financial markets converges.
At longer horizons, I formulate and test hypotheses about global macro, the monetary world order, and the megatrends shaping human civilisation. At shorter horizons, I study how convexity and volatility interact with long-term growth.
Research is published occasionally, on my own time.